Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 130531
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sun Dec 12 2021
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Florida
Peninsula, and over parts of the West Coast and northern California.
...West Coast...
Strong upper trough off the Pacific Coast will shift east during the
period as strong 500mb flow translates toward southern CA, west of
SBA, by sunrise Tuesday. Northern surface frontal segment will surge
inland along the OR/northern CA Coast after 18z then move east,
arcing from central ID-central NV-MRY by 14/12z. Forecast soundings
suggest SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg will likely develop within
marine influenced near-coastal areas. Strong onshore flow and
favorable large-scale support suggest offshore convection will
spread inland with some potential for lightning as mid-level
temperatures are seasonally cold and surface-6km lapse rates will be
steep.
...FL Peninsula...
Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is located
over LA late this evening. This feature will track southeast toward
the FL Peninsula later today which should maintain a weak inverted
surface trough off the FL Atlantic Coast. Scattered weak convection
is currently noted 50-100mi east of MLB and this boundary should
focus a few thunderstorms through the period.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/13/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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