Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 140031
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CST Mon Dec 13 2021
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible across the eastern Florida
Peninsula, and over parts of the West Coast and northern California.
...Synopsis...
Strong deep-layer ascent will persist along the West Coast as a
mid-level trough continues to amplify and cooler temperatures aloft
continue to overspread the region. A moist marine low-level airmass
resides ahead of the mid-level trough axis, contributing to adequate
buoyancy (when considering the mid-level temperatures) to support a
few flashes with the stronger convective cells. In addition,
guidance consensus depicts a LLJ overspreading central and southern
CA via a belt of 50+ kt flow at 850 mb ahead of the mid-level trough
axis. As such, an isolated strong convective wind gust may accompany
one of the stronger storms. Otherwise, a plume of westward advecting
buoyancy may support an isolated thunderstorm or two along the
east-central Florida Peninsula coastline through the end of the
period.
..Squitieri.. 12/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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