Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141232
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern and south
Florida, as well as along the West Coast and from parts of
California to the Four Corners region.
...Southwest...
A highly amplified mid/upper trough near the West Coast will shift
inland as an intense mid-level speed max rotates through the basal
portion of the trough over southern CA and AZ. Very strong forcing
for ascent should support multiple shallow convective bands,
initially across southern CA within a low-level warm-conveyor regime
and later along a sharpening cold front that will sweep east across
the CO River Valley. Forecast soundings suggest buoyancy will remain
scant along the southern CA coast with mid-level lapse rates
unsupportive of deeper convection for appreciable lightning. From
the Lower CO Valley to the Four Corners area, strong to severe
gradient wind gusts are expected both ahead of and behind the
surging cold front. However, MUCAPE should hold below 100 J/kg and
this will limit convective contributions to background high wind
gusts.
...Eastern/south FL...
Moist easterly low-level flow will persist through the period
yielding multiple rounds of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within a weakly unstable air mass. Poor mid-level
lapse rates and low shear will limit potential for storm-scale
organization.
..Grams/Leitman.. 12/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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