Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across eastern and south
Florida, as well as along the West Coast and from parts of
California to the Four Corners region.
...CA today to the Four Corners overnight...
A pronounced midlevel shortwave trough will progress inland over
southern CA this afternoon/evening, and then continue
east-northeastward to the Four Corners by the end of the period.
Strong forcing for ascent in a band preceding the midlevel trough
will combine with modest lapse rates/weak buoyancy on the cyclonic
side of the midlevel jet to support occasional lightning flashes
with low-topped convection today across CA, and tonight from the
southern Great Basin to the Four Corners. Strong winds and
sufficiently cold profiles suggest that the overnight convective
band could be accompanied by snow squalls.
...FL Atlantic coast this afternoon through tonight...
A weak inverted trough and a modifying air mass will continue to
support the potential for a few thunderstorms near the east central
and southeast Atlantic coast of FL.
...Middle TX coast today to the Ozarks overnight...
Low-level moisture return is underway across the TX coast, where
some shallow convection/showers are expected today, and some
weak/elevated convection may spread as far north as the Ozarks
overnight. However, midlevel temperature profiles should remain
sufficiently warm to inhibit deep convection/lightning through this
forecast period.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 12/14/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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