Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
31,243
1,670,093
Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
57,252
3,705,648
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
32,133
1,853,991
Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...
SPC AC 161220
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0620 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across
parts of the Ark-La-Tex to Lower Mississippi Valley through this
afternoon.
...Ark-La-Tex to Lower MS Valley...
Scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along
and ahead of a southward-sagging cold front that stretches from
southeast MO to southeast OK as of 12Z. This front will slow its
progression through the day and eventually stall across the
Ark-La-Miss to central TX by evening. Abundant cloud coverage will
likely temper boundary-layer heating, especially northeast of the
Ark-La-Tex area. But rich moisture characterized by 60s surface dew
points will yield modest buoyancy with a southwest to northeast
gradient in MLCAPE below 1500 J/kg. While low-level winds will
diminish through the day, convergence along the front and sufficient
warm theta-e advection ahead of it may support a diurnal uptick in
convective intensity into this afternoon. Around 40-kt effective
shear may prove adequate for a couple lower-end supercells with
hazard intensity expected to remain marginal.
..Grams/Leitman.. 12/16/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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