Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
33,698
1,828,620
Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
51,122
3,043,219
Memphis, TN...Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
44,405
2,273,106
Little Rock, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Pine Bluff, AR...Conway, AR...
SPC AC 161947
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX AREA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible from
the Arklatex region to Lower Mississippi Valley through this
afternoon.
...Discussion...
Current outlook reasoning and areas continue to reflect current
expectations, with a limited/low-end risk for a couple of stronger
storms within the MRGL risk area this afternoon. The primary change
has been to remove the Mid Atlantic region and vicinity from the
thunder area.
..Goss.. 12/16/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021/
...Northeast TX into AR today...
A midlevel ridge will persist over the Southeast, with the primary
belt of westerlies extending from the Great Basin to the Great
Lakes. The primary embedded/lead shortwave trough and deep surface
cyclone will move across ON/James Bay, while the associated trailing
cold front moves slowly southeastward today before stalling tonight
from the Mid South to the Ark-La-Tex. Mid 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support MLCAPE
up to 1500 J/kg from northeast TX into AR today ahead of the front.
A few thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day along
and south of the front, especially where pockets of surface heating
occur in cloud breaks. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will be
sufficient for supercells, but there will be a gradual weakening of
low-level shear through the afternoon as the primary shortwave
trough/cyclone pass well to the north and low-level mass response
diminishes. Thus, any severe threat is expected to remain low-end
through the day and then diminish by this evening.
Overnight, additional thunderstorms may develop farther west into
southeast OK in a weak warm advection regime, but this elevated
convection should remain sub-severe.
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