Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
28,077
1,602,193
Little Rock, AR...Fort Smith, AR...North Little Rock, AR...Conway, AR...Hot Springs, AR...
SPC AC 170051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms producing hail
remain possible from the Arklatex region into eastern Oklahoma
tonight.
...Arkansas/Arklatex region into eastern Oklahoma...
A quasi-stationary front currently stretches from northern TX into
southern AR, with ongoing thunderstorms from the Arklatex into far
northwest MS. These storms are currently enhancing the boundary with
outflow, and thus are slightly elevated. Though deep-layer shear is
nearly 50 kt, it is parallel to the boundary, suggesting the storms
may remain elevated as they move east/northeast. Weak lapse rates
aloft have thus far precluded any severe hail potential, as seen on
00Z LZK sounding.
Tonight, modest southwest flow at 850 mb will result in theta-e
advection across OK and AR, beneath 50 kt midlevel southwesterlies.
This surface front is forecast to approach the Red River late
tonight, where low 60s F dewpoints will exist. Forecast soundings
show weak elevated instability on the order of 500 J/kg will develop
over OK, with perhaps 1000 J/kg into AR. Deep-layer shear will
remain favorable, and could support marginal hail given the
increasing moisture. As such, have shifted low-end hail
probabilities a bit westward to include eastern Oklahoma.
..Jewell.. 12/17/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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