Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
24,409
1,219,268
Fort Smith, AR...Fayetteville, AR...Springdale, AR...Muskogee, OK...Ardmore, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
74,141
10,675,431
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 170541
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Thu Dec 16 2021
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, some producing locally strong wind gusts or hail,
will be possible across parts of the southern Plains late Friday
afternoon and into the evening.
...Synopsis...
Low-level moisture will be relegated to the southern Plains and
Southeast today, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. The mid and
upper jet will extend from the central Plains into the Great Lakes,
well north of a warm front which will stretch from northwest TX
across OK, AR, and into the OH Valley by 00Z. After 00Z, a cold
front will push south across TX, OK, and AR as a positive-tilt upper
trough moves eastward across the northern Plains. The warm frontal
zone as well as the eventual cold front will both provide a focus
for scattered thunderstorms throughout the period.
...OK...TX...AR...
Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing this morning across
southeast OK into AR associated with warm advection. Elevated CAPE
up to 1000 J/kg and effective deep-layer shear around 40 kt may
support storms producing marginal hail. Additional activity is then
expected to develop during the late afternoon from the Red River
into eastern OK and western AR, aided by advection and only limited
heating. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected with a pre-frontal
trough, with deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary. A few storms
may develop into small bows, or perhaps transient supercells prior
to the cold front rapidly undercutting during the evening. The
primary threats will be locally damaging gusts or low-end severe
hail as hodographs will primarily be straight line.
Further upscale growth along the surging front may occur into
northern TX after 06Z as the low-level lift intercepts a plume of
mid 60s F dewpoints. A short-lived wind or hail threat may exist
with this activity before becoming undercut.
Elsewhere, elevated instability will exist north of the warm front
from northern AR across MO and into the OH Valley. Here, general
thunderstorm activity is most likely given weak instability.
..Jewell/Jirak.. 12/17/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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