Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
11,719
327,104
Denison, TX...Ada, OK...Durant, OK...
5 %
80,044
13,011,662
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
9,487
272,651
Ardmore, OK...Ada, OK...
5 %
84,896
13,208,891
San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 180102
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CST Fri Dec 17 2021
Valid 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across parts of
the southern Great Plains.
Only minor adjustments were made to the thunder area and the
northern portion of the Marginal Risk area. Please refer to MCD
2043 for the latest short-term thinking across the Slight Risk area.
Otherwise, latest observational data and numerical guidance
continues to suggest an isolated severe risk into the overnight
hours across northern/central TX as the front continues to move
southeast in the presence of modest instability and around 35-40 kts
of effective shear.
..Bunting.. 12/18/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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