SPC AC 190550

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively-tilted upper-level trough will move from the Great
   Lakes/mid-Mississippi Valley region east across New England and the
   mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Farther west, a shortwave trough over
   northern Mexico will move east into central TX Sunday night. A cold
   front extending from the NC coast into the FL Panhandle Sunday
   morning will move east/southeast and be located across the
   northern/central FL peninsula Sunday afternoon.

   Poor lapse rates will contribute to minimal instability Sunday
   morning as the front moves across the coastal Carolinas and southern
   GA, though it may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm
   development over land. Thunderstorms are more likely, however, as
   the front moves offshore. Across the northern FL peninsula,
   instability will be somewhat greater, although still generally weak
   with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. A couple stronger storms may develop
   during the afternoon capable of producing gusty winds, however
   severe storms are not expected.

   Across central/southern TX, thunderstorms will be possible mainly
   late Sunday as lift associated with the approaching shortwave trough
   develops in the presence of weak elevated instability.

   Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will be prevalent and thunderstorms
   are not anticipated Sunday.

   ..Bunting/Marsh.. 12/19/2021

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