Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 191627
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sun Dec 19 2021
Valid 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Northern Florida/southeast Georgia...
A moist and modestly unstable air mass precedes an
east/southeastward-advancing cold front. Widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain a possibility, with the potential for
thunderstorms to redevelop along the front this afternoon in the
wake of more prevalent activity in the predawn hours. While a strong
wind gust or two could occur, the potential for severe-caliber
storms is likely to remain minimal given weak lapse rates aloft and
the marginality of overall buoyancy.
...South Texas...
As per the 12Z observed sounding from Brownsville, thermodynamic
profiles ahead of an approaching upper trough over northern Mexico
will be marginally supportive of isolated elevated thunderstorms
today into tonight, particularly in closer proximity to the Rio
Grande.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 12/19/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
