Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 200554
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Sun Dec 19 2021
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.
...Synopsis...
Mainly zonal flow aloft atop a cool, stable low-level airmass will
limit thunderstorm development for much of the CONUS. The main
exception would be portions of the FL Peninsula, where the approach
of a mid-level trough will encourage the northward return of
marginally buoyant air from the southwest to east-central FL
coastline. A couple of thunderstorms are possible along portions of
the FL coastline, especially later in the evening and overnight,
when the mid-level trough gets closer to the peninsula. At the
moment, it appears that the more favorable overlap of deep-layer
ascent/shear and buoyancy to support a severe threat is expected to
remain west of the peninsula up to 12Z Tuesday.
..Squitieri/Jirak.. 12/20/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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