Dec 20, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 20 16:30:49 UTC 2021 (20211220 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211220 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211220 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211220 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211220 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211220 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Florida...
   Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible within a moist air mass
   near the east coast of Florida today. A southern-stream shortwave
   trough over Texas at midday will continue eastward toward the middle
   Gulf Coast and northern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. This system
   will influence the eastward persistence of storms over the Gulf of
   Mexico through tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could approach the
   Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula tonight, but little
   severe potential is expected prior to 12Z Tuesday.

   ..Guyer.. 12/20/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z