Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201945
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Mon Dec 20 2021
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. It still
appears that any severe threat across the FL Keys and western FL
Peninsula associated with storms moving eastward from the Gulf of
Mexico should occur after the end of the Day 1 period (21/12Z).
..Gleason.. 12/20/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021/
...Florida...
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible within a moist air mass
near the east coast of Florida today. A southern-stream shortwave
trough over Texas at midday will continue eastward toward the middle
Gulf Coast and northern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. This system
will influence the eastward persistence of storms over the Gulf of
Mexico through tonight. Some of the thunderstorms could approach the
Florida Keys and western Florida Peninsula tonight, but little
severe potential is expected prior to 12Z Tuesday.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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