Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
14,290
3,263,576
Port St. Lucie, FL...Lakeland, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Kissimmee, FL...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 211241
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and
damaging winds are possible, mainly through about midday across
parts of the central to southern Florida Peninsula.
...FL Peninsula...
Primary shortwave trough over MS will shift east off the South
Atlantic coast tonight. To the southeast of this wave, a leading MCV
west of Tampa Bay should progress northeast towards northeast FL by
early afternoon. Most guidance suggests that a compact LLJ
accompanying the lead impulse should shift across parts of the
peninsula through about 18Z. This has aided in a recent northward
advancement of the surface front across south FL where mid 70s
surface temperatures and low 70s dew points have become prevalent.
Near the surface warm front, enlarged low-level hodographs will
favor a conditional threat for multiple supercells.
Actual convective evolution is more uncertain as guidance differs
markedly with the handling of ongoing convection off the Gulf coast
and mainly stratiform activity over the peninsula. Convection just
west of Tampa Bay and Sarasota may have the best potential to
intensify near the surface warm front this morning. Otherwise,
continued indications of probable mid-level drying/subsidence in the
wake of the leading MCV and veering of the low-level wind profile
with time diminishes confidence in the degree of sustained
thunderstorm development this afternoon.
..Grams/Mosier.. 12/21/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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