Dec 21, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 21 19:36:00 UTC 2021 (20211221 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211221 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211221 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211221 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211221 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211221 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 211936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

   Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated lighting flash remains possible across coastal areas of
   eastern and southern Florida, but thunderstorm chances will
   generally diminish today.

   A surface low is currently exiting east-central parts of the FL
   Peninsula, with rapidly veering winds in the boundary layer. While
   isolated storms cannot be ruled out in the near term near a cold
   front over central FL, drying from the west and decreasing lift
   suggest minimal thunderstorm chances, and severe weather is
   therefore not anticipated.

   ..Jewell.. 12/21/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021/

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   The overall environment/scenario is trending less favorable for
   severe storms, but a couple of strong/locally severe storms could
   still occur across the eastern Peninsula through
   early/mid-afternoon. Overall updraft intensity/lightning flashes
   have diminished over the past few hours, with an exception being
   some stronger storms at midday near the immediate coast of southeast
   Florida, which are focused along prior outflow. This activity should
   continue to quickly shift offshore away from the upper Keys and the
   remainder of South Florida. Additional development across the
   central/south-central Peninsula also seems unlikely or at least
   uncertain given the prevalence of cloud cover and a tendency for
   weakening convergence through the afternoon.

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