Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 220519
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Tue Dec 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Pacific Coast from
northern California northward, mainly during the evening and
overnight.
...Pacific Coast...
Large-scale pattern will not be particularly favorable for deep
convection capable of generating lightning across the CONUS during
the day1 period. However, sustained, and notable mid-level height
falls are expected across the Pacific Northwest ahead of an
approaching upper trough. Poor lapse rates will not prove
particularly favorable for weak convection to generate lightning
within the warm advection zone across this region; but, near-frontal
convection during the latter half of the period will develop within
a steeper lapse rate environment. Strongest updrafts should generate
a few flashes of lightning, especially offshore convection where
buoyancy will be a bit greater than inland areas. Greatest risk for
isolated thunderstorms will remain near the coast in proximity to
marine boundary-layer influences.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/22/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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