Aberdeen, WA...Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
9,956
298,543
Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...Hoquiam, WA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,357
315,163
Aberdeen, WA...Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221239
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and isolated damaging winds are possible along the
Washington coast mainly this afternoon, and along the Oregon to
northern California coast this evening into the overnight.
...Pacific Northwest Coast...
An amplified shortwave trough centered near the Haida Gwaii should
reach coastal WA by 12Z. Attendant Pacific cold front will spread
inland more quickly, reaching northwest WA by late afternoon and
cross OR from north to south tonight. Guidance is generally
consistent in depicting low-topped convection developing just ahead
of or along the front, in the form of cells or linear bands
respectively. The 06Z HRRR and 00Z HRW-FV3 are more aggressive than
other HREF CAMs with simulated intensity, which is typical for a
scantly buoyancy air mass. Forecast soundings from the 00Z HRW-ARW,
HRW-NSSL, and 06Z HRRR all suggest the environment will be
conditionally favorable for brief low-topped supercells developing
in the coastal waters to the immediate coast given steep low to
mid-level lapse rates and an enlarged low-level hodograph. This
potential may be relatively more probable along the OR coast this
evening where 850-mb winds near 50-kt should be coincident with near
50 F surface dew points. A brief tornado, isolated severe wind
gusts, and small hail are all possible in the more robust low-topped
convection consisting of showers and sporadic lightning flashes.
..Grams/Mosier.. 12/22/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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