Aberdeen, WA...Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
9,956
298,543
Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...Hoquiam, WA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,357
315,163
Aberdeen, WA...Coos Bay, OR...North Bend, OR...Astoria, OR...Newport, OR...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221941
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and/or isolated damaging winds are possible along
the Washington coast this afternoon, and along the Oregon to
northern California coast this evening into the overnight.
No changes are required to the existing outlook.
..Jewell.. 12/22/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Dec 22 2021/
...Pacific Northwest...
A positive-tilt upper trough off the coast of southern British
Columbia will continue to amplify and dig southeastward as it
approaches the Pacific Northwest tonight. A related cold front will
spread inland across coastal Washington later this afternoon/early
evening and parts of Oregon tonight. Overall buoyancy will remain
minimal, but low-topped convection should increase near the front
later today. Wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of brief
low-topped supercells. This potential may be relatively more
probable along the Oregon coast early this evening as 50 kt 850-mb
winds coincide with near-50F surface dew points and potentially a
couple hundred J/kg SBCAPE. A brief tornado, isolated severe wind
gusts, and small hail are all possible in the more robust low-topped
convection consisting of showers and sporadic lightning flashes.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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