Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 230048
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Wed Dec 22 2021
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes are possible with near-coastal convection
tonight. Gusty winds may accompany this activity.
...Pacific Northwest...
Pre frontal band of low-topped convection has developed ahead of the
upper trough just off the WA Coast. Lightning is very sparse with
this offshore activity as buoyancy is quite limited. While wind
fields/shear support organized updrafts, cool boundary-layer
conditions over land are yielding MUCAPE values generally less than
100 J/kg, and this is not expected to rise appreciably. Although
immediate coastal areas may destabilize a bit due to more favorable
trajectories off the water. Even so, the prospect for organized
severe wind appears too low to warrant MRGL Risk overnight. Gusty
winds are the primary risk with the low-topped convection as it
moves inland over the next several hours.
..Darrow.. 12/23/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
