Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 241614
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CST Fri Dec 24 2021
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Coast
States, eastern Great Basin and Colorado Plateau.
...Western States...
Morning water vapor imagery shows two strong shortwave troughs
affecting the western US today. One system is currently moving
ashore over southern CA, and has produced scattered lightning
flashes during the past few hours offshore and just inland. Radar
and IR satellite imagery suggest that the main lift associated with
this feature is beginning to shift eastward, with the prospects for
more lightning over southern CA waning rapidly. Have therefore
removed that thunderstorm area with anticipated coverage now below
10%. This same system will move eastward and result in isolated
thunderstorms today over the southern Sierras, and from northwest AZ
into parts of UT/CO.
A second shortwave trough is approaching the WA/OR coast. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to occur along the coast through the
afternoon, with lesser chances farther inland into parts of ID.
Present indications are that the eastern areas will see minimal
coverage of flashes, so have opted to leave those areas below 10%
threshold.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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