Storm Prediction Center Dec 25, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Dec 25, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sat Dec 25 19:33:46 UTC 2021 (

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Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

Categorical Graphic

Day 1 Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

20211225 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Tornado Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

20211225 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Wind Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

20211225 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Day 1 Hail Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

   SPC AC 251933

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0133 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible along the Pacific Coast
   through tonight.

   ...20Z Update...
   The only change made to this outlook was to trim northern portions
   of the OH thunder line. Removing this delineation was considered.
   However, MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows low-topped convection ahead
   of a cold front, with RAP forecast soundings showing meager buoyancy
   persisting ahead of the storms. As such, a couple lightning flashes
   still appear possible for at least a couple more hours. Otherwise,
   the forecast remains on track for isolated thunderstorm potential
   along the West Coast. Some concern exists for lightning flashes to
   accompany stronger convective cells across portions of the Interior
   west towards the end of the period (early Sunday morning), though
   sparse coverage precludes any thunderstorm delineations at this
   time.

   ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021/

   ...West Coast...
   Quiet convective weather is expected over most of the nation today,
   with the exception of the West Coast.  Strong onshore flow ahead of
   an approaching upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms in
   coastal areas of WA/OR into northern and central CA.  A few of the
   thunderstorms may spread into the CA central valley this
   afternoon/evening, where small hail may accompany the stronger
   cells.  No organized severe storms are anticipated.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   Isolated thunderstorms have been occurring over the OH valley this
   morning.  This risk of further lightning flashes will diminish
   rapidly early this afternoon as the associated shortwave trough
   moves eastward and away from the region. Will leave a small area of
   10% coverage for a few more hours.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z