Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 280039
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CST Mon Dec 27 2021
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected this evening over parts of the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Storms will also likely develop in
parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks late tonight. No severe
threat is forecast across the continental United States through
tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the southern
Plains into the Appalachians as an upper-level trough moves eastward
across the western U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front,
thunderstorm development should continue for a few hours from
Pennsylvania into West Virginia and northern Virginia. This activity
is expected to weaken later this evening as instability decreases
across the region. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts
of the southern Plains and Ozarks late tonight as a low-level
strengthens in the lower Mississippi Valley and Arklatex. No severe
threat is expected across the U.S. through tonight.
..Broyles.. 12/28/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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