Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 290042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Tue Dec 28 2021
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this this
evening over parts of the lower Mississippi Delta region.
...Louisiana into Mississippi...
A plume of instability currently exists from Louisiana into
Mississippi, with dewpoints into the 70s F. This currently yields
MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Several showers and a few
thunderstorms were noted recently within the moist plume where
capping is minimal.
Observed and forecast soundings from the area depict a warm layer
near 700 mb, which is inhibiting these storms from gaining strength.
The loss of heating combined with minimal lift suggests only a low
probability of a severe storm, despite 40-50 kt deep-layer shear and
effective SRH over 150 m2/s2. Overnight, height tendencies will
remain neutral as a shortwave trough moves across NM into west TX.
For these reasons, will maintain a Marginal Risk for tonight for a
chance of brief low-level rotation or gusty winds. Isolated, weak
convection may occur into Wednesday morning over parts of
north/northwest Texas as weak elevated instability develops ahead of
the upper trough.
...Tennessee into Kentucky...
The northeastward extension of the instability plume currently
points into Middle Tennessee, with low 60s F dewpoints now into
Kentucky. A cold front continues to push across northern Kentucky,
trailing west into northeast AR. 00Z soundings from BNA as well as
ILN show strong winds aloft and shear. The BNA soundings shows small
amounts of MUCAPE, with a warm layer just above 700 mb. The weak
instability may favor isolated lightning flashes as forcing along
the cold front interacts with the instability plume later tonight.
Instability is forecast to remain quite limited, but if a
front-parallel storm can intensify, a localized wind threat could
not entirely be ruled out. Given all these factors, it appears the
most likely scenario will be for no severe storms.
..Jewell.. 12/29/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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