SPC AC 291620

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

   Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
   TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail are
   possible from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the
   Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity through tonight.

   ...AR/LA into TN Valley...
   Ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor changes.  Intense
   thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon over
   southern AR as a combination of daytime heating, approaching large
   scale ascent, and strengthening wind fields overspread the region. 
   This cluster of storms will organize and track across the ENH risk
   corridor through the afternoon and evening hours.  A few supercells
   are possible, as well as an increasing risk of a larger-scale bowing
   structures as storms move into middle TN, northeast MS, northern AL,
   and eventually into northwest GA.  Tornadoes, damaging winds, and
   hail will all be possible with these storms.  Have also added a
   small corridor of 10% significant tornado probabilities over parts
   of MS/AL where CAM guidance and forecast shear profiles appear most
   favorable.  Please refer to MCD #2070 for further short-term
   details.

   Farther south, more isolated thunderstorm development is expected
   later this afternoon and evening across central MS/AL.  This area
   will have favorable vertical shear profiles and CAPE for discrete
   supercells and some risk of tornadoes.  However, large-scale forcing
   is weaker so uncertainty is lower regarding coverage and intensity
   of storms.

   ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/29/2021

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