SPC AC 241726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   TX INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to perhaps locally severe storms may linger into Monday
   from East Texas to the mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   Well-defined shortwave trough currently over southern CA/northern
   Baja will move eastward across the Southwest and into southern High
   Plains today. This wave is forecast to have transitioned to more of
   an open, negatively tilted system by early Monday, likely extending
   from the central High Plains southeastward into western OK Monday
   morning. This wave is then expected to continue quickly
   northeastward throughout the day, losing amplitude as it moves
   through the mid MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. A second shortwave
   trough, now visible on satellite imagery off the Pacific Northwest
   Coast, is expected to continue southeastward along the CA coast
   before pivoting eastward over southern CA Monday evening. Overall
   upper pattern will favor continued western CONUS troughing
   throughout the period, with a long fetch of moderate to strong
   southwesterly flow aloft stretching from the Baja Peninsula into the
   OH Valley.

   Surface low associated with the lead shortwave trough will likely be
   centered over northeast OK early Monday morning, with a cold front
   extending southward into northeast TX and then back southwestward
   into the TX Hill Country. A warm front is also expected to extend
   eastward from the low into western TN. This low will likely occlude
   throughout the day as the overall system weakens, but secondary
   cyclogenesis is forecast at the triple point, with the resulting low
   moving across KY Monday night.

   ...Northeast TX/Southeast OK into Lower OH Valley...
   Pre-frontal warm sector will likely be characterized by low to mid
   60s dewpoints early Monday from northeast TX into the Mid-South.
   Residual EML is expected to be in place, keeping the potential for
   surface-based in the immediate vicinity of the front and/or triple
   point. Strength of the vertical shear suggests that more
   robust/persistent updrafts should be able to acquire rotation, with
   the elevated storms capable of hail and the surface-based storms
   capable of all severe hazards, but primarily hail. As the day
   progresses, convergence along the front will wane, likely
   contributing to diminishing storm strength and coverage. The
   potential for surface-based inflow is also expected to lessen, but
   there is still some chance for damaging wind gusts near the triple
   point, where low-level ascent will be greatest, and for hail north
   of the warm front into evening.

   ...MS/AL...
   Moisture advection is expected throughout the day, with mid 60s
   dewpoints possibly reaching as far north as BHM prior to FROPA. This
   increased moisture and resulting increase in buoyancy could
   contribute to stronger updrafts and higher storm coverage along and
   ahead of front as it moves through MS and AL Monday evening. This
   increased moisture could also result in higher potential for
   surface-based storm inflow. High resolution guidance varies on this
   potential, so confidence in enough coverage to merit severe
   probabilities is too low to introduce an area with this outlook.
   However, probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if potential
   for even severe coverage increases.

   ..Mosier.. 01/24/2021

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