SPC AC 121728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
   THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a brief
   tornado are possible Saturday across northern and central Florida.

   ...Northern through central Florida...

   Within a broad, cyclonic upper-flow regime over the eastern U.S., a
   series of vorticity maxima will move from the northern Gulf through
   a portion of the southeast states including north FL. A stationary
   front will persist from the northern Gulf, northeastward to along
   the GA/FL border. Most high-res guidance indicate a rain-cooled
   boundary will develop across northern FL Saturday morning due to
   ongoing areas of showers and thunderstorms. There is uncertainty
   regarding the placement of this feature with the HRRR suggesting
   most of northern FL may not recover during the day. The warm sector
   south of the boundary is expected to become moderately unstable with
   mid to upper 60s F dewpoints supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, but
   with weak mid-level lapse rates. Deeper forcing associated with the
   northeast-migrating maxima will likely remain in cool sector.
   However, a few storms are  expected to develop along the rain-cooled
   boundary across north or central FL during the afternoon as the
   boundary layer destabilizes. While the stronger winds aloft and
   vertical shear will reside in the cool sector, at least 30-40 kt
   effective bulk shear will support the potential for some storm
   organization with locally strong wind gusts the main threat.
   Additional strong storms may develop farther south along the sea
   breeze.

   ..Dial.. 02/12/2021

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