SPC AC 150554

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
   AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INTO NORTH TEXAS/WESTERN
   ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Evening thunderstorms, and attendant risk for mainly large hail --
   will likely evolve across the western Oklahoma vicinity, and then
   spread across much of the rest of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
   Kansas and north Texas, and as far east as Arkansas/northern
   Mississippi/northern Alabama.  

   Clusters of stronger convection-- and possibly an isolated severe
   storm or two capable of any severe hazard -- will be possible from
   the start of the period through roughly sunset from Mississippi
   eastward across Georgia.

   ...Synopsis...
   A compact/vigorous low -- progged to move quickly eastward across
   the Four Corners states during the day and then into the southern
   High Plains overnight -- will remain the primary feature of interest
   in the upper flow field across the U.S. on Tuesday.  

   At the surface, a cold front will likewise move across the
   southwestern U.S. through the day, and into the southern Plains
   during the evening as a low consolidates over the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandle region.  Overnight, the front will surge across much of
   the southern Plains, while a west-to-east warm front -- extending
   eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast -- becomes
   better defined as it lifts slowly northward through the period.

   ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas east to the Gulf Coast states after dark...

   Despite persistent moisture return into the south-central U.S.
   through the day on Tuesday, a capped boundary layer is expected,
   which should persist through the afternoon -- hindering potential
   for diurnal convective development.

   During the evening, as the upper system crosses New Mexico and
   approaches the southern High Plains, and a surface low strengthens
   in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandle region, along the
   eastward-moving surface front, storm development is expected to
   occur.  The strongest of these storms may pose risk for large hail,
   and possibly damaging gusts.  

   With time, increasing warm advection/QG ascent should allow an
   expansion of elevated storms north of the warm front across parts of
   central and eastern Kansas, and to a lesser degree eastward across
   Arkansas into northern portions of Mississippi and perhaps Alabama
   along the eastern extent of this front.  Hail would be the primary
   severe risk with a couple of the stronger storms, though a stronger
   gust or two may also be possible.

   Meanwhile, storm development should expand southward along -- and
   just behind -- the advancing cold front, though stronger capping
   should limit storm coverage with increasing southward extent. 
   Still, one or two of the strongest storms may produce hail, and
   perhaps a strong wind gust.

   ...Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia vicinity during the day...
   Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start
   of the period across portions of the lower Mississippi
   Valley/central Gulf Coast region, in an area of persistent low-level
   warm advection/weak ascent.  With time, a backdoor/damming front
   over Georgia, and the weakening Pacific cool front crossing the
   central Gulf Coast region, will loosely consolidate into a
   west-to-east warm front, that will lift slowly northward through the
   afternoon and evening as the western synoptic system emerges into
   the southern Plains.

   With an amply moist/weakly unstable environment in the vicinity of
   the warm front, and flow veering/increasing with height to
   west-southwesterly at around 50 kt at mid levels, a broad region of
   ample CAPE/shear will exist.  Periodic clusters of storms across
   this region through afternoon/early evening will likely occur, with
   a few storms possibly becoming transiently severe.  Locally damaging
   winds, marginal hail, or even a tornado cannot be ruled out, though
   limited risk across such a large area warrants only MRGL categorical
   risk at this time.

   ..Goss.. 03/15/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z