Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 250559
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER
A few strong to severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon
into early evening over a portion of north central and northeast
Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Other strong storms are possible from
the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. Late Friday
night a few strong storms with hail might develop from northern
Mississippi into western Tennessee.
...North-central through northeast Kansas...
A weak surface low should develop across western KS by early evening
in association with a minor shortwave trough ejecting northeast
through the Central Plains during the afternoon. A warm front will
extend east from the low through northeast KS with a dryline/trough
southward through west central KS. Dewpoints in the upper 40s to
near 50 F will advect northwestward through the warm sector. Despite
the limited moisture, surface heating in presence of cold air aloft
with steep lapse rates will support up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
afternoon or early evening. A few strong to severe storms might
develop by late afternoon along the warm front near the KS/NEB
border and farther west near the triple point. Strong vertical shear
will favor low-topped supercells capable of large hail, locally
strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. There is still some
lingering uncertainty regarding the mesoscale details, so will
maintain MRGL for this outlook. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk
might be warranted in future updates.
...Carolinas through southern Georgia...
A progressive shortwave trough will continue northeastward into the
Northeast States Friday. A strong low-level jet initially from
eastern NC into the Middle Atlantic will move offshore by mid day.
Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-level winds
to lift northeast away from the moist warm sector present across the
Carolinas and Gulf Coast States. A corridor of modest instability
should evolve in pre-frontal warm sector in the presence of strong
deep shear. While a few storms with mainly a threat for locally
strong wind gusts might develop along the cold front during the day,
tendency for low-level winds to veer and weaken in the presence of
only shallow forcing suggests overall severe threat should remain
....Lower Mississippi Valley region...
The front will stall along southern portions of the Gulf Coast
States during the day, but should begin to move back northward as a
warm front Friday evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens.
Destabilization and isentropic ascent resulting from this process
might contribute to the development of mostly elevated storms later
Friday night or early Saturday. A few instances of hail might occur
with some of this activity.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z