Mar 25, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 25 05:59:46 UTC 2021 (20210325 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210325 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210325 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 109,285 10,121,527 Memphis, TN...Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Topeka, KS...Columbia, SC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210325 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 39,441 4,308,167 Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Topeka, KS...Columbia, SC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210325 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 77,235 7,440,616 Raleigh, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Topeka, KS...Columbia, SC...Cary, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210325 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 50,120 3,105,468 Memphis, TN...Topeka, KS...St. Joseph, MO...Manhattan, KS...Bartlett, TN...
   SPC AC 250559

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon
   into early evening over a portion of north central and northeast
   Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Other strong storms are possible from
   the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. Late Friday
   night a few strong storms with hail might develop from northern
   Mississippi into western Tennessee.

   ...North-central through northeast Kansas...

   A weak surface low should develop across western KS by early evening
   in association with a minor shortwave trough ejecting northeast
   through the Central Plains during the afternoon. A warm front will
   extend east from the low through northeast KS with a dryline/trough
   southward through west central KS. Dewpoints in the upper 40s to
   near 50 F will advect northwestward through the warm sector. Despite
   the limited moisture, surface heating in presence of cold air aloft
   with steep lapse rates will support up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE by late
   afternoon or early evening. A few strong to severe storms might
   develop by late afternoon along the warm front near the KS/NEB
   border and farther west near the triple point. Strong vertical shear
   will favor low-topped supercells capable of large hail, locally
   strong gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. There is still some
   lingering uncertainty regarding the mesoscale details, so will
   maintain MRGL for this outlook. However, an upgrade to SLGT risk
   might be warranted in future updates. 

   ...Carolinas through southern Georgia...

   A progressive shortwave trough will continue northeastward into the
   Northeast States Friday. A strong low-level jet initially from
   eastern NC into the Middle Atlantic will move offshore by mid day.
   Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-level winds
   to lift northeast away from the moist warm sector present across the
   Carolinas and Gulf Coast States. A corridor of modest instability
   should evolve in pre-frontal warm sector in the presence of strong
   deep shear. While a few storms with mainly a threat for locally
   strong wind gusts might develop along the cold front during the day,
   tendency for low-level winds to veer and weaken in the presence of
   only shallow forcing suggests overall severe threat should remain
   marginal.  

   ....Lower Mississippi Valley region...

   The front will stall along southern portions of the Gulf Coast
   States during the day, but should begin to move back northward as a
   warm front Friday evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens.
   Destabilization and isentropic ascent resulting from this process
   might contribute to the development of mostly elevated storms later
   Friday night or early Saturday. A few instances of hail might occur
   with some of this activity.

   ..Dial.. 03/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z