SPC AC 251730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Friday across parts of
   the Northeast, central Plains, and from the eastern Carolinas into
   southern Georgia. Late Friday night a few strong storms with hail
   may develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Northeast...
   A shortwave trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet should
   move northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes across the Northeast
   and southern Ontario/Quebec through Friday evening. Southwesterly
   flow in the 850-700 mb layer is also forecast to be quite strong,
   generally 50-70+ kt. A surface low initially near Lake Erie should
   develop east-northeastward along/near the International border. Even
   though low-level moisture will likely remain limited, with surface
   dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, modest diurnal heating
   and cooling mid-level temperatures may support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
   across parts of the Northeast. Given the strength of low-level flow,
   low-topped storms capable of producing isolated strong to damaging
   winds and perhaps a brief tornado may develop along/ahead of a
   surface cold front Friday afternoon.

   ...Central Plains...
   A weak surface low should develop over western KS by Friday evening
   as a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejects northeastward across the
   central Plains through the day. A warm front should extend east from
   the low across northern KS, with a surface trough/dryline extending
   southward through west-central KS. Low-level moisture is expected to
   remain quite limited, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to
   perhaps 50F south of the warm front over KS. Despite this meager
   moisture, surface heating and cool temperatures aloft may support
   the development of weak instability (MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg) by
   Friday afternoon/early evening. A couple strong to severe storms may
   develop both along the warm front near the KS/NE border, and farther
   west near the triple point. 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and the
   weak instability should support organized, low-topped storms posing
   a threat for hail, strong/gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado
   through Friday evening.

   ...Carolinas into Georgia...
   Stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the
   shortwave trough over the Northeast will likely remain displaced to
   the north of this region. A strong southwesterly low-level jet
   initially extending from the Mid-Atlantic to eastern NC Friday
   morning should move offshore by mid day. Even though a moist
   low-level airmass will be in place ahead of a cold front from GA to
   NC, there remains considerable uncertainty in overall storm coverage
   through Friday afternoon. Any storms that can form along or ahead of
   the front may pose an isolated strong/gusty wind threat given weak
   to moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. The tendency
   for low-level winds to veer/weaken through the day, combined with
   only shallow convergence along the cold front suggests that the
   overall severe threat should remain quite isolated/marginal.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley...
   A front should stall along the central Gulf Coast vicinity during
   the day, before lifting northward as a warm front Friday night as a
   southerly low-level jet strengthens over the lower MS Valley.
   Gradual destabilization and lift associated with this process may
   contribute to elevated storms late Friday night into early Saturday
   morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Given that
   MUCAPE may reach 1000-1500 J/kg and sufficient (35-40 kt) of
   effective bulk shear, a few instances of marginally severe hail may
   occur with this convection.

   ..Gleason.. 03/25/2021

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