SPC AC 260605

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the
   lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are
   possible including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Other
   severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with
   isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions...

   Early Saturday morning a warm front will likely extend across the
   central or northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. It is likely
   that elevated thunderstorms will be in progress within a broad warm
   advection regime north of this boundary, mainly across a portion of
   the TN Valley. Some of this activity could pose a risk for mainly
   hail before shifting northeast and weakening with time. Under the
   influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer
   moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect
   northward into this region contributing to a corridor of moderate
   instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the warm
   front. Additional storms are expected develop during the evening
   within an evolving warm advection regime accompanying a
   strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Strengthening vertical
   wind profiles associated with an approaching northern-stream upper
   trough will favor organized storms including supercells. Some of
   these storms will be rooted close enough to the surface to pose a
   risk for tornadoes given expected favorable low-level hodographs.
   Otherwise damaging wind and large hail will also be possible. A cold
   front accompanying the northern stream shortwave trough will
   approach this region from the northwest and will contribute to the
   development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating
   into lines and clusters with the primary severe threat eventually
   transitioning to isolated damaging wind.

   ...Midwest...

   Low-level moisture will be more limited with northward extent into
   this region. However, cold air aloft will tend to compensate, and
   the atmosphere could become at least marginally unstable with up to
   1000 J/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms Saturday afternoon.
   Storms are expected to initiate along the southeast-advancing cold
   front within a strongly sheared environment supportive of a few
   organized storms capable of mostly isolated large hail and damaging
   wind during the late afternoon into the evening.

   ..Dial.. 03/26/2021

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