SPC AC 261724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi
   through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including
   large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. Potential for a strong
   tornado exists from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee. Other
   severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with
   isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats.

   ...Synopsis...
   At upper levels, a southern stream shortwave trough will move
   through the southern High Plains into central Texas. A northern
   stream shortwave trough will amplify across the upper Midwest. These
   features will eventually phase late in the period near the
   Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front in the Southeast
   will advance northward before slowing/stalling in the vicinity of
   the Tennessee Valley. A surface cyclone will deepen across Illinois
   and Wisconsin and bring a cold front through the upper Midwest
   southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valleys...
   Moisture return will be ongoing at the start of the period and
   through the day. With upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoint currently
   along the Gulf Coast, it seems probable that mid to upper 60s
   dewpoints will exist in the warm sector. Given potential for
   elevated thunderstorms to develop along the northward advancing warm
   front, there is some uncertainty as to how far north the effective
   boundary will be. Even so, surface heating should support
   boundary-layer destabilization with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the
   afternoon. Effective shear will be strong at 50-65 kts. Organized
   storms will be capable of all severe hazards. The greatest potential
   for tornadoes and larger hail will exist with storms that develop on
   the slowing warm front where more cellular development would be
   possible. Later in the evening, the cold front will move through the
   region and damaging wind gusts will become the primary threat,
   though QLCS circulations will also be possible given adequate
   low-level shear profiles.

   ...Midwest...
   Mid-level cooling along with the northern stream trough will support
   storm development along the cold front during the afternoon. Limited
   boundary-layer moisture will keep buoyancy more marginal with
   northward extent, though 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible. Strong
   deep-layer wind profiles and cold temperatures aloft will support
   marginally severe hail and isolated damaging wind gusts.

   ...Carolinas...
   A broad region of southerly flow will develop south of a stalled
   front within the Carolina Piedmont region. Isolated storms may
   develop along/near the boundary. Effective shear of 40-50 kts and
   relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will bring potential for
   marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Wind gust potential
   will be maximized where parcels are surface based along and south of
   the boundary.

   ..Wendt.. 03/26/2021

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