Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
62,991
17,424,804
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
152,068
33,270,072
Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
SPC AC 271724
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely along an advancing cold front
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The highest confidence in
damaging winds is in southeastern Virginia and vicinity. Farther
south and west, a few strong to severe storms are possible from
Mississippi into Georgia.
...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level shortwave trough will continue to intensify as
it moves out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
A surface cyclone will deepen in Ontario/Quebec with an attendant
cold front roughly along the Appalachian crest. This front will move
quickly eastward and serve as the focus for strong to severe storms
from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and portions of the
Southeast.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Low-level flow ahead of the cold front is forecast to increase to
40-60 kts in the lowest 1-2 km. This, along with the speed of the
front, should favor strong to severe wind gusts. Some gusts could be
in excess of 65 kts with the stronger storms. A relatively more
favorable corridor for wind damage appears probable along the NC/VA
border into southeast VA. Here, surface temperatures are expected to
the mid 70s F with mid 60s F dewpoints, supportive of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic profiles in
the boundary-layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates by the afternoon.
Given the potential for a line segment to develop along the front in
this region, an Enhanced risk has been introduced. Low-level
hodographs are favorable for tornadoes, particularly if discrete
storms can develop ahead of the front.
Farther north into the Mid-Atlantic, low-level wind fields will be
stronger, but buoyancy will generally be less on account of
decreased boundary-layer moisture and greater cloud cover limiting
surface heating. However, 500+ J/kg MLCAPE will still exist will
still favor severe, convectively augmented surface gusts. Should
greater heating occur in pockets, closer to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could
develop and increase the overall threat for damaging winds.
Tornadoes will also be possible, but low-level thermodynamics and
storm-mode are more questionable this far north.
...Southeast...
A few strong to severe storms will be possible along the cold front
during the afternoon. Storm coverage and intensity becomes more
questionable as with southwestward extent as the main upper-level
forcing will be well removed from this region. However, residual
strong 850-500 mb winds on the southern flank of the departing
trough will support at least a marginal threat for damaging wind
gusts. The threat will be maximized with any organized line segments
that can develop. At this time it appears most likely to occur in
portions of northern GA and western SC.
..Wendt.. 03/27/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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