Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
122,149
24,414,528
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
289,614
38,651,307
Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 300600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday from the
lower Mississippi Valley northeastward to the southern Appalachians.
The severe risk will probably continue after dark from the Carolinas
northward to the Delmarva peninsula.
...Lower MS Valley east to GA and northward through the Carolinas
and eastern VA/Delmarva...
A large-scale mid-level trough initially over the central U.S. will
amplify as it moves east and reaches the lower Great Lakes southward
to the Southeast. A cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley
southwestward into east TX Wednesday morning. A still modifying
airmass over the central Gulf Coast states will feature surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s near the coast to the lower 60s farther
north over the TN Valley. Weak to moderate buoyancy is forecast to
develop during the day ahead of the southeast-moving front with
SBCAPE ranging from 250 J/kg to 1000+ J/kg in the richer moisture.
Strong deep-layer flow will overspread the warm sector with a
conditional threat for strong to severe storms. The primary
limiting factors for a more robust risk appear to be a tendency for
storms to be undercut by the front and the displacement of stronger
mid- to upper-level forcing for ascent to the north. Isolated
damaging gusts and large hail will be the primary threats.
Farther northeast, a surface low is forecast to develop in lee of
the higher terrain over VA during the day. Southerly low-level flow
will aid in lower to mid 60s F dewpoints into NC and VA. Diurnal
heating will contribute to storms redeveloping over north GA/western
Carolinas during the late afternoon/evening. A belt of 35-40 kt 850
mb flow will strengthen during the evening as mid-level flow
increases after dark. Although instability will be limited on the
northern periphery of the marginally unstable warm sector, a
convective band will likely develop during the evening across parts
of the Carolinas into VA. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado may accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 03/30/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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