Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...
MARGINAL
240,141
31,287,674
Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
131,146
24,936,949
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
49,468
7,407,557
Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Sandy Springs, GA...
5 %
240,146
31,243,749
Charlotte, NC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 301728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
portions of the Southeast, with damaging gusts the primary severe
threat. More isolated severe storms are also possible across parts
of the Mid Atlantic, with the severe threat potentially continuing
after dark.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue to amplify while progressing eastward
across the Ohio Valley towards the Atlantic coastline tomorrow
(Wednesday). During the late morning/early afternoon, a surface low
is expected to gradually develop in advance of the upper trough
across the central Appalachians and move northeastward towards lower
New England while an associated cold front will sag southward across
the Southeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the aforementioned surface low across the lower
Hudson Valley and along the front extending into Texas. At the
moment, buoyancy appears to be greatest across portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, where the greatest coverage for
thunderstorms and associated risk for severe is currently expected.
However, while buoyancy is weaker across portions of the Carolina
Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic, stronger dynamic forcing for ascent
and kinematic fields may promote at least isolated severe storm
development across this area as well.
...Portions of the Southeast U.S...
Stronger flow aloft and associated upper support is expected to lag
the surface cold front and remain roughly parallel to the baroclinic
zone, likely promoting linear convective structures along the front
forced primarily by low-level convergence. Nonetheless, deep
moisture (characterized by upper 60s F dewpoints), and the presence
of a diurnally heated/mixed boundary layer promoting 7.5 C/km
low-level lapse rates are expected to foster 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
by late morning/early afternoon. The available instability and mixed
boundary layer should support the potential for organized damaging
gusts, with a Slight risk introduced. 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates
and linear forcing suggest that marginally severe hail is possible,
albeit on a more isolated basis. Lastly, a few CAMS have hinted at
one or two discrete cells initiating ahead of the front. Should
mature/sustained pre-frontal convection develop, enough low-level
speed and directional shear will be present to support brief,
transient rotation and a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
out.
...Portions of the Carolina Piedmont into the Mid Atlantic...
By mid afternoon extending into the evening hours, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected within a confluence zone ahead
of the approaching surface low. Compared to areas farther southwest,
upper flow will be more perpendicular to the cold front/surface lee
troughing, with deep-layer ascent overspreading the area. A 30-40 kt
low-level jet will also be in place, fostering up to 150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH, suggesting that storm organization and transient
low-level rotation is possible. However, instability is expected to
be marginal despite mid 60s F dewpoints. Mediocre low and mid-level
lapse rates currently support tall-skinny MLCAPE profiles,
suggesting that the overall severe threat should be relatively
localized/brief in nature. However, any storm that can manage to
become organized/sustained may pose a threat for damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/30/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z