Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
SPC AC 090553
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO WESTERN GA...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle, and northward across much of
Alabama and western Georgia on Saturday.
A compact upper low over the central Plains/mid-MO Valley and its
attendant trough will pivot northeast toward the Great Lakes through
the period. A secondary shortwave impulse located over the lower MS
Valley will quickly lift northeast toward the southern/central
Appalachians by 00z, while becoming increasingly absorbed by the
main upper low/trough. A surface low is forecast over the mid-MS
Valley Saturday morning, with a cold front trailing toward the
southwest from near St. Louis to the Arklatex vicinity and arcing
toward the Edwards Plateau. Ahead of the front, a mature and likely
severe QLCS will likely be ongoing across parts of the lower MS
Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are expected to
continue through the morning and into the afternoon with the QLCS as
it shifts east/southeast across parts of LA/MS/AL/GA/FL. Further
north, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible closer to the
surface low, ahead of the eastward-surging cold front across parts
of the lower Ohio Valley toward Lake Erie.
...Central Coast States/western GA...
Uncertainty still exists regarding the extent of the severe threat
on Saturday. This will mainly be driven by how for east/southeast
the ongoing QLCS progresses during the Day 1 period. As such, the
western and northern margins of the Slight risk area could still
change in forthcoming outlooks. Nevertheless, the bulk of severe
potential is expected from southeast LA into southern MS/AL and the
western FL Panhandle. Moderate instability and weak inhibition will
exist downstream of the ongoing QLCS Saturday morning, with a 40-50
kt southerly low level jet being maintained through at least midday.
Forecast soundings indicate potential for strong, damaging gusts,
some possibly greater than 65 kt, given the strength of deep-layer
flow and the mature nature of the ongoing convective system.
Additionally, large, curved low level hodographs will exist closer
to the Gulf coast, and a few mesovortex tornadoes also will be
possible. The severe threat should gradually diminish with eastward
extent during the afternoon as the line of convection tracks toward
eastern GA/northern FL as stronger wind profiles will pivot
northeast of the region and the thermodynamic environment becomes
...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes vicinity...
Strong southerly low level flow will transport mid 50s to near 60s F
dewpoints into the Lower OH Valley region ahead of the
eastward-advancing cold front and surface low. While midlevel lapse
rates will remain modest, this should be sufficient for around 500
J/kg MLCAPE. Additionally, strong heating will allow temperatures to
climb into the mid/upper 70s, resulting in steepening low level
lapse rates. Given strong deep layer winds, fast moving
clusters/bowing segments could result in isolated damaging gusts.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z