Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
19,587
7,414,443
Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...Clearwater, FL...
5 %
112,411
38,200,883
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
100,149
30,862,202
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Raleigh, NC...
SPC AC 101710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across the
central Florida Peninsula and isolated strong to severe storms are
possible in portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
An upper low will move from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes on
Sunday. At the surface, a cyclone will occlude through the day as it
moves from northern Illinois to southern Ontario through the period.
At the beginning of the period, an occluded front will extend from
the surface low in northern Illinois to western Pennsylvania. A cold
front will extend from this occluded front southward to the Gulf
Coast States.
...Florida...
An MCS should be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the
Florida Panhandle into the northeastern Gulf as a result of
increasing isentropic ascent from a strengthening low-level jet.
This activity is expected to mature during the morning hours as it
moves into the central Florida peninsula. Extensive cloud cover will
likely limit surface heating, but temperatures in the low 70s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s should be adequate for moderate
instability, especially given the moderate mid-level lapse rates.
The greatest severe threat will likely be during the morning hours
when the most intense convection is expected to be oriented
north/south as it crosses central Florida. Through time, the
convection is expected to become parallel to the deep-layer flow and
thus the outflow is likely to outrun the convection to the south.
This may limit the overall severe threat by mid to late afternoon as
the MCS sags south across the Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary hazard with this activity.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Modest low-level moisture is expected to surge northward ahead of a
cold front which will move through the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
This cold front will serve as the primary focus for isolated to
scattered strong to severe storm development during the afternoon
and evening hours on Sunday. Moderate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg
is expected across the Carolinas into Virginia ahead of this storm
activity Sunday afternoon. Farther north, instability is expected to
be weaker but sufficient for a marginal damaging wind threat.
Effective shear of 35 to 45 knots across the warm sector will aid in
storm organization as it moves east-northeastward with damaging
winds as the primary threat. Large hail will be a greater threat
from Maryland southward where greater instability is forecast.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 04/10/2021
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