New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
62,492
40,720,291
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 201804
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds
will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New
York on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
As one area of upper troughing evolves across the western U.S. from
the Intermountain region to California, a second trough will
progress eastward across the eastern U.S. through the period.
At the surface, a weak system associated with the western upper
troughing will move across southern Nevada/southern California into
the Four Corners states. In the East, a cold front progged to lie
roughly along the Appalachian crest at the start of the period will
move quickly eastward, clearing most of the East Coast by evening
with the exception of eastern Maine, and Florida. In the wake of
the front, cold high pressure will expand across the central and
eastern U.S. through the period.
...The Mid Atlantic region and vicinity...
Convective development is forecast to occur in lee of the
Appalachian crest relatively early in the period, from eastern PA
southward across central VA. Only modest instability (at or below
500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) is expected ahead of the advancing front,
with storms to remain relatively low-topped across the region.
Still, with linear forcing along the front, and fairly strong
west-southwesterly flow through the cloud-bearing layer, a few
stronger -- possibly damaging -- wind gusts may occur within what
should evolve into a semi-continuous band/line of convection. This
convection should move off the Mid Atlantic Coast and into southern
New England by late afternoon, weakening as it crosses MA/CT/RI and
vicinity through the evening.
..Goss.. 04/20/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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