Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 231735
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on
Saturday across parts of the Southeast. All severe hazards appear
possible including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes.
...Southeast States...
An MCS will likely be in progress early Saturday, primarily from a
portion of central and southern GA into southern AL. The leading
squall line may pose an ongoing risk for mostly damaging wind, but
isolated tornadoes will also be possible with any embedded supercell
structures. This activity will likely leave an outflow boundary that
will stall before retreating northward during the day. Most models
including the CAM solutions destabilize the atmosphere rapidly from
the southwest as mid to upper 60s F dewpoints advect through the
warm sector beneath plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Model
solutions are not in full agreement on the initial southward extent
of or evolution of the morning outflow boundary, so this raises some
uncertainty regarding where best corridors of instability will set
up. Nevertheless, a corridor of moderate instability is expected
with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon from
central AL through southern GA and southward toward the Gulf coastal
area. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday
afternoon within the evolving confluent low-level flow regime from
eastern MS into AL as well as along the retreating outflow boundary.
Low level winds will veer in wake of a leading shortwave trough, but
a secondary area of deeper ascent accompanying an upstream vorticity
maximum is expected to spread across the area during the day. Mixed
storms modes are likely, but wind profiles with strong effective
bulk shear of 50+ kt will support organized storms including
supercells and bowing segments with large hail, damaging wind and
tornadoes possible. Given the veered low-level winds, the greatest
tornado threat might evolve with storms interacting with retreating
boundary.
..Dial.. 04/23/2021
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