SPC AC 011713

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Sat May 01 2021

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday evening across
   much of the lower Mississippi Valley. A couple of tornadoes,
   damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity.  Strong to
   severe thunderstorm development is also possible east of the
   Colorado Front Range into adjacent portions of the central Great
   Plains, where hail and damaging gusts will be the main concern.

   ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

   A compact, negatively tilted mid/upper level trough will lift
   northeast from eastern TX to the lower OH/TN Valley on Sunday. While
   some weakening of the trough is forecast as it develops northeast,
   persistent 35-45 kt 850-700 mb southwesterly midlevel flow will
   remain over the region. Ongoing convection is expected Monday
   morning in a warm advection regime ahead of a deepening surface low
   over OK/TX. This activity could pose a threat for locally damaging
   gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of southwest LA
   into southwest MS. The extent of early convection does lead to some
   uncertainty in the evolution of the severe threat during the
   afternoon. However, warm advection will allow mid/upper 60s
   dewpoints to spread northward across the region as temperatures warm
   into the mid to upper 70s. This should result in weak to moderate
   destabilization. This will support reinvigoration/continuation of
   severe potential along outflow from morning convection and near a
   warm front lifting northward across AR/MS/AL. Forecast soundings
   indicate low level hodographs becoming enlarged and favorably curved
   to support a continued tornado threat into the afternoon/early
   evening, and strong low to midlevel flow will support damaging wind
   potential. 

   Forecast guidance also suggests that airmass recovery will occur
   across parts of northern LA/southern AR during the afternoon as the
   core of the mid/upper trough tracks over the region. Supercells
   capable of all severe hazards will be possible across this region as
   well. 

   ...Central High Plains...

   A southeastward-advancing cold front and dryline will intersect
   across east-central CO/west-central KS Sunday afternoon. Upslope low
   level flow will result in surface dewpoints as high as the low 50s
   beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
   terrain during the late afternoon and shift eastward into the High
   Plains. Supercell wind profiles will allow for organized cells
   initially capable of large hail. Steep low level lapse rates also
   will support strong outflow winds. As the cold front surges
   south/southeast during the evening, some upscale development is
   possible as convection shifts eastward into western KS. This will
   increase the potential for damaging gusts into the nighttime hours.

   More isolated convection is expected southward toward the Oklahoma
   Panhandle near a dryline. A few storms could develop over the higher
   terrain of northeast NM and shift eastward across the OK Panhandle,
   producing hail and locally damaging gusts. This activity will remain
   tied to the dryline and diurnally driven, with severe potential
   decreasing after sunset.

   ..Leitman.. 05/01/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z