New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
153,155
49,579,798
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 241728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated wind-damage potential are possible
across parts of the Ohio valley and Northeast, and also across parts
of South Dakota, Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
A belt of 30-40 kt west-northwesterly midlevel flow will largely
remain in place from the northern Plains into the Northeast on
Sunday, along the southern periphery of a deep mid/upper-level
trough covering much of eastern Canada. An embedded midlevel
shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England during the
morning and early afternoon, with another shortwave trough glancing
northern New England Sunday night, but otherwise large-scale ascent
may remain weak from the OH Valley into the Northeast through much
of the period. As a result, coverage of robust afternoon
thunderstorm development remains uncertain. However, a few strong
storms will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface boundary
sagging into the region. Effective shear of 20-30 kt will support
the potential for weakly organized cells/clusters, with isolated
damaging wind possible where low-level lapse rates can steepen
during the afternoon.
...South Dakota...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of South Dakota
by late afternoon, as MLCINH is removed by strong surface
heating/mixing. Potential areas for initiation include a weak
surface trough across western SD, and a weak surface boundary near
the ND/SD border. Despite rather limited low-level moisture, MLCAPE
is expected to rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range as temperatures
increase to near or above 100F in some locations. Modest
west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
25-35 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm organization. A
very warm and deeply-mixed boundary layer will support an isolated
severe-wind risk with the strongest storms and outflows.
...Southwest...
As a midlevel trough continues to drift westward across Arizona,
moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow/deep-layer
shear may again support a few organized storms across portions of
the Southwest. The areal extent of the more favorable environment is
expected to be smaller than previous days, so no probabilities have
been included at this time. However, a few strong cells/clusters
cannot be ruled out, especially from northwest AZ/southwest UT into
southern NV and perhaps southeast CA.
..Dean.. 07/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
