Jul 24, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 24 17:28:31 UTC 2021 (20210724 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20210724 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210724 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 153,155 49,579,798 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210724 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210724 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 153,155 49,579,798 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210724 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
   DAKOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated wind-damage potential are possible
   across parts of the Ohio valley and Northeast, and also across parts
   of South Dakota, Sunday afternoon and evening.

   ...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
   A belt of 30-40 kt west-northwesterly midlevel flow will largely
   remain in place from the northern Plains into the Northeast on
   Sunday, along the southern periphery of a deep mid/upper-level
   trough covering much of eastern Canada. An embedded midlevel
   shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England during the
   morning and early afternoon, with another shortwave trough glancing
   northern New England Sunday night, but otherwise large-scale ascent
   may remain weak from the OH Valley into the Northeast through much
   of the period. As a result, coverage of robust afternoon
   thunderstorm development remains uncertain. However, a few strong
   storms will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface boundary
   sagging into the region. Effective shear of 20-30 kt will support
   the potential for weakly organized cells/clusters, with isolated
   damaging wind possible where low-level lapse rates can steepen
   during the afternoon.

   ...South Dakota...
   Isolated thunderstorms may develop across portions of South Dakota
   by late afternoon, as MLCINH is removed by strong surface
   heating/mixing. Potential areas for initiation include a weak
   surface trough across western SD, and a weak surface boundary near
   the ND/SD border. Despite rather limited low-level moisture, MLCAPE
   is expected to rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range as temperatures
   increase to near or above 100F in some locations. Modest
   west-northwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
   25-35 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm organization. A
   very warm and deeply-mixed boundary layer will support an isolated
   severe-wind risk with the strongest storms and outflows. 

   ...Southwest...
   As a midlevel trough continues to drift westward across Arizona,
   moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow/deep-layer
   shear may again support a few organized storms across portions of
   the Southwest. The areal extent of the more favorable environment is
   expected to be smaller than previous days, so no probabilities have
   been included at this time. However, a few strong cells/clusters
   cannot be ruled out, especially from northwest AZ/southwest UT into
   southern NV and perhaps southeast CA.

   ..Dean.. 07/24/2021

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