New York, NY...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
159,682
51,352,060
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
306,000
63,149,882
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Baltimore, MD...
SPC AC 281719
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and a risk for a tornado,
will be possible from the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday.
...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Mid Mississippi
Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
across the southern Great Lakes in association with an MCV. This
mid-level feature embedded within northwesterly flow, is expected to
result from a severe squall line over the western Great Lakes prior
to the start of the period. In the low levels, a surface low
initially over the central Great Lakes will develop eastward into
New England late Thursday night. An attendant cold front will push
southeast across a large part of the OH Valley with the trailing
portion of the boundary extending into the central High Plains.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of
convection from IN into PA through the early afternoon. A myriad of
possible scenarios are evident in the latest convection-allowing
model guidance in terms of the details of storm redevelopment during
the afternoon. With those concerns stated, a moist airmass will
extend from the Corn Belt eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states with
60s and lower 70s F dewpoints. Strong heating on the periphery of
earlier cloud debris will result in a moderate to very unstable
airmass (1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). A belt of strong westerly 700-mb
flow is forecast to overspread the upper OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic states during the afternoon. Several linear clusters
or a combination of linear clusters and supercells are possible from
the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Damaging gusts and
tornadoes are possible with the more intense thunderstorms. Lower
storm coverage and weaker deep-layer shear farther west over IL/MO
will likely limit storm organization and the overall risk for severe
thunderstorms.
...Central High Plains/Central Rockies...
A large area of high pressure will be in place on Thursday from the
central Rockies southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, flow from the southeast will allow for a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture to set up across Nebraska during the
afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place across
much of the moist airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop
at the western edge of the instability corridor will move
east-southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates will make
marginally severe storms possible, with a potential for hail and
isolated wind damage.
..Smith.. 07/28/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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