Oct 15, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 15 17:11:15 UTC 2021 (20211015 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211015 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211015 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 147,484 59,085,965 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211015 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211015 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 147,230 59,015,985 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211015 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151711

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Potential for a few damaging wind gusts will exist across portions
   of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from northern Manitoba
   across western Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and 
   the Mid MS Valley early Saturday. This upper trough is expected to
   move northeastward throughout the day, encouraged by the fast
   northeastward progression of an embedded shortwave trough moving
   from the middle OH Valley/Lower MI through the Northeast into New
   England. A surface low attendant to this embedded shortwave is
   expected to begin the period over far southern Quebec before
   continuing northward while occluding. Cold front attendant to this
   low will push eastward throughout the day, from its early morning
   position just east of the Appalachian crest to off the Eastern
   Seaboard. By early Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved
   entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front,
   with the strong flow aloft in place from northern Mid-Atlantic into
   New England contributing to the potential for a few more robust
   storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe
   threat is expected to remain isolated, owing to limited
   heating/buoyancy ahead of the front. Most likely corridor for strong
   gusts currently appears to be from eastern PA northeastward across
   northern/central NJ and the Hudson Valley into western MA/CT.

   Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS,
   precluding thunderstorm development.

   ..Mosier.. 10/15/2021

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