Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 210606
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE 5% LABEL FROM WIND GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
A few storms might produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts
over a portion of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon. Some
risk for marginally severe hail will exist late Friday night with
any storms developing across northeast Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
...Eastern North Carolina...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern NC during the
afternoon and early evening along a cold front. Moderate instability
with up to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective bulk shear should
characterize the pre-frontal warm sector. A few storms might become
capable of producing locally strong to damaging wind gusts. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and modest winds in the surface-850 mb layer
might serve as overall limiting factors.
...Central and southern Plains area...
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a weak warm
advection regime Friday morning across southern OK and northwest TX.
A somewhat better chance for thunderstorms will exist later Friday
night across southern KS, northeast OK and southwest MO. Other than
a low-end risk for small to marginally severe hail, primarily across
southern KS, no severe weather is expected.
..Dial.. 10/21/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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