Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Independence, MO...
SPC AC 220557
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Storms may pose a risk for mostly isolated large hail Saturday night
primarily across northeast Kansas.
...Central through eastern Kansas...
Low-amplitude shortwave trough will reach the southern High Plains
Saturday night contributing to lee cyclogenesis. Early Saturday a
warm front will extend from the surface low near the OK Panhandle,
southeastward through central and southeast OK. Elevated storms with
some threat for hail should be in progress within the zone of ascent
north of this boundary, primarily across southeast KS into southwest
MO. The low will deepen and move slowly northeast into western KS
with the approach of the shortwave trough Saturday night, while the
warm front lifts north into southern KS. A dryline will mix eastward
through west TX and OK during the day before retreating overnight.
Partially modified Gulf air will advect northward beneath a plume of
6.5-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate
instability. The KS warm sector will probably remain capped given
only modest forcing along the warm front during the day. However,
there is some chance that a surface based storm or two might
initiate over south central or southwest KS. Greater confidence
exists that storms will develop overnight as isentropic ascent and
destabilization increases north of the warm front in association
with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Moderate instability
and 35-45 kt effective bulk shear will support a threat for elevated
supercells capable of isolated large hail before storms evolve into
an MCS.
...Southern High Plains...
A few high-based storms might initiate along the dryline from
northwest TX into western OK during the afternoon. This activity
will develop within an environment characterized by moderate
instability and 25-35 kt effective bulk shear supportive of mainly
multicells. A few instances of hail and downburst winds may occur
before activity diminishes during the evening.
..Dial.. 10/22/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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