SPC AC 221725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Storms may pose a risk for mainly isolated large hail Saturday night
   across northeast Kansas and western Missouri.

   ...Central Plains into Missouri...
   Scattered to numerous storms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
   along the KS/OK border into southwestern MO in association with a
   southwesterly low-level jet. This activity may pose a continued
   threat for marginally severe hail for the first few hours of the
   period before diminishing as the low-level jet weakens. In the wake
   of these morning storms, low-level moisture is forecast to return
   northward across the southern/central Plains in advance of a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting eastward over the western
   CONUS. At the surface, a low should gradually deepen from the
   central High Plains into central KS by late Saturday night and early
   Sunday morning. A warm front will lift northward across KS through
   the period, while a dryline mixes eastward across the
   central/southern High Plains through the day.

   The increasing low-level moisture in tandem with modestly steepened
   mid-level lapse rates should result in the development of 1500-2500
   J/kg of MUCAPE along and north of the warm front Saturday evening.
   The surface-based warm sector across KS will probably remain capped
   through Saturday afternoon given very weak large-scale ascent during
   the day. Still, a surface-based storm or two may initiate along/near
   the dryline or warm front by early Saturday evening across
   southwestern into south-central KS. If a storm develops in this
   area, all severe hazards appear possible. Otherwise, greater
   confidence exists that mainly elevated storms will occur Saturday
   night across north-central/northeastern KS and western/central MO as
   MUCAPE increases north of the warm front in tandem with a
   strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Around 35-45 kt of
   effective bulk shear should prove favorable for organized updrafts,
   including the potential for a few supercells capable of producing
   isolated large hail early in the convective cycle. These elevated
   storms should eventually grow into an arcing band of convection by
   early Sunday morning while continuing to pose a threat for
   marginally severe hail.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A high-based storm or two may initiate off the dryline from parts of
   the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK by late Saturday afternoon.
   If storms occur, they would encounter a moderately unstable airmass
   and around 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Mainly multicells capable
   of producing occasional hail and severe wind gusts may occur through
   the early evening before increasing convective inhibition decreases
   the threat. With the late arrival of ascent associated with the
   shortwave trough approaching from the west, the number of storms, if
   any, that can develop remains highly uncertain. Have therefore
   maintained the rather conditional Marginal Risk for hail/wind across
   this region with no changes.

   ..Gleason.. 10/22/2021

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