Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
17,739
2,132,299
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
32,696
9,703,996
Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 281700
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Friday over parts of
coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic. Occasional strong to
damaging winds should be the main threat.
...Coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic...
A large mid/upper-level low centered over the TN Valley Friday
morning will move slowly eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic through
the period. An occluded front should extend eastward from a surface
low over WV across southern VA and eastern NC at the start of the
period. This front is forecast to lift gradually northward across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
A moist low-level airmass characterized by low to mid 60s surface
dewpoints should be present across parts of coastal NC into
southeastern VA and vicinity. A broken line of storms may be ongoing
Friday morning over eastern NC. There should be weak but sufficient
instability ahead of this activity to support surface-based
convection moving quickly east-northeastward into parts of
southeastern VA and the southern Delmarva Peninsula Friday morning.
Strong deep-layer shear of 45-55+ kt will support organized
updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two along with
short line segments. Isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief
tornado appear possible with this convection. These storms should
move offshore by early Friday afternoon, ending the severe threat
across this area.
Recent guidance suggests that there will be some potential for weak
boundary-layer instability (MLCAPE 250-500 J/kg) to develop along
and south of the northward-advancing front across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Friday afternoon. A low-topped line of
convection may develop along the front and move northward over
portions of central/northern VA into southern/central MD. Strong
east-southeasterly flow at low levels is forecast to be present by
most guidance. It would only take very modest diurnal heating to
support mixing of these strong low-level winds to the surface
through convective processes. Accordingly, an isolated threat for
strong to damaging winds may exist with any storms that can become
surface based as they move northward through late Friday afternoon
across this region.
..Gleason.. 10/28/2021
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