Nov 2, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 2 17:28:18 UTC 2021 (20211102 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20211102 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211102 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211102 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211102 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211102 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 021728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1228 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
   contiguous United States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough over the upper Midwest Wednesday morning will
   move southeast into the OH/TN Valley region, while expansive high
   pressure aloft extends across much of the western U.S. with the
   exception of the Pacific Northwest. There, a strong upper trough
   will move onshore Wednesday night. A surface stationary front will
   extend from central FL peninsula west across the northern Gulf of
   Mexico into a weak surface low over southeast TX, and continue
   farther west as a cold front across south TX. A cold front will move
   onshore across the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday.

   Weak elevated instability is anticipated north of the frontal
   boundary over portions of west/central TX Wednesday, and showers and
   thunderstorms are expected to develop/expand in coverage as an
   impulse within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow over the southern
   high Plains moves southeast across the region and augments
   larger-scale ascent. Additionally, forecast soundings show
   sufficient instability (upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg) and minimal
   convective inhibition within the near-frontal air mass, suggesting
   surface-based thunderstorm development will be possible as the cold
   front moves south. Substantial cloud-layer shear and modestly
   impressive mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km may support small
   hail with elevated storms north of the front, while any sustained
   cluster of storms that develops near the front could produce gusty
   winds.

   ..Bunting.. 11/02/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z