Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 040541
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong, potentially damaging thunderstorms are possible
over south Florida on Friday.
...South FL...
A mid-level trough initially over the central Gulf of Mexico will
move east to the FL Peninsula during the period. In response to the
mid-level disturbance, a weak surface low is forecast to develop
east-northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the FL
Peninsula near Lake Okeechobee during the day. Despite considerable
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates, south-southeasterly low-level
flow will advect increasingly rich moisture into south FL ahead of
the low. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the upper 60s to lower
70s and contribute to weak buoyancy (generally 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Although low-level hodographs are not expected to be
become large, ample mid to high-level southwesterly flow will result
in effective shear around 45-50 kt. A couple of organized
thunderstorms are possible given the lower CAPE/moderate-shear
setup. The main hazard with the stronger storms will be localized
damaging gusts.
Elsewhere, tranquil conditions are forecast across a large part of
the Lower 48 states.
..Smith.. 11/04/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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