Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 071700
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Monday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific should amplify as it
approaches the West Coast Monday night. A 50-60+ kt mid-level jet
associated with an embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move
over parts of northern/central CA in this time frame. Strong
large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level jet/shortwave trough
should overspread this region as temperatures aloft gradually cool.
Even though low-level moisture will remain modest, various forecast
soundings from the latest NAM/RAP show weak elevated instability
developing across coastal and inland portions of northern/central CA
from Monday night through early Tuesday morning. This meager
buoyancy combined with the pronounced large-scale ascent may be
sufficient to support charge separation and isolated lighting
flashes with the strongest updrafts. Elsewhere, instability is
expected to remain minimal to nil across the rest of the CONUS
Monday, with little potential for storms.
..Gleason.. 11/07/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
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